Greater Manchester Forecasting Model

Consistent, sophisticated and robust information on the current and likely performance of Greater Manchester, in terms of the economy, is a vital tool in the development of strategies and plans to accelerate economic performance.

The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) consists of forecasts for all ten districts in the conurbation, as well as data for Cheshire, Cumbria, Lancashire, Merseyside, the North West.

For more information, please email research@greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk

GMFM Baseline 2019 and Accelerated Growth Scenario

The baseline forecast for Greater Manchester sets out the likely growth pattern based on a continuation of past trends. It is a ‘policy neutral’ forecast as it assumes that policy will be as effective in the future as it has been in the past.

Forecasters Oxford Economics were commissioned by the GMCA to produce a baseline forecast and an ‘Accelerated Growth Scenario’ (AGS) for Greater Manchester.  The Scenario illustrates a future where improvements to the skills base, innovation, and transport connectivity boost GVA, employment, and productivity growth across the North.

The AGS draws on the transformational growth scenario for the North prepared by Cambridge Econometrics and partners for the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review. It also considers the risks from Brexit, as well as the challenges to raising the long-term productivity of GM’s economy, alongside raising levels of employment.